RMB Cross-Border Settlement Share Hits New High
On July 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China released data showing that in H1, cross-border trade RMB settlement reached RMB 12.8 trillion, up 31.5% YoY, a record high. Meanwhile, RMB's share in global payment currencies exceeded 25% for the first time, reaching 25.3%, up 1.8 percentage points from end-2025. This milestone marks the fast-track of RMB intl'ization.
Drivers: Energy Trade and Digital RMB
Analysts note that growth stems from two areas: first, commodity trade with oil-producing countries like Middle East and Russia, with RMB settlement ratio for energy imports (crude oil, LNG) exceeding 40%; second, expanded digital RMB cross-border payment pilots now covering 25 countries in ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa, supporting trade, investment, and remittances. Additionally, bilateral swap agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc., continue to expand, providing RMB liquidity.
Industry Insight: From Trade Settlement to Reserve Currency
IMF's latest Global Cross-Border Capital Flows Report shows that in Q1 2026, RMB's share in global FX reserves rose to 4.2%, a record, surpassing GBP to become the third-largest reserve currency. Li Ming, director of Ark Global Macro Research, said: 'RMB settlement share exceeding 25% is a key threshold, indicating its upgrade from a trade settlement tool to an important international payment and store of value. Future growth will come from RMB use in international bond issuance and cross-border loans.'
Expert View: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist
Despite progress, challenges remain. Zhang Wei, head of cross-border payments at HSBC, noted that rate hikes by major central banks tighten USD liquidity, and insufficient FX reserves in some emerging markets may affect RMB settlement stability. Moreover, RMB capital account is not fully convertible, and offshore market depth is limited. However, the mBridge project (multi-CBDC bridge) is in trial operation, likely to improve cross-border payment efficiency and reduce reliance on the USD system.
Global Impact: Promoting Multipolar Monetary System
The acceleration of RMB intl'ization is reshaping global cross-border capital flows. According to SWIFT, in H1 2026, RMB usage in cross-border trade finance surpassed JPY for the first time, becoming the second-largest currency. The ECB recently announced it would include RMB in its FX reserve investment scope. Market expects that as China signs more local currency settlement agreements, RMB's share in global FX trading could exceed 30% by 2028.
Future Outlook: Policy and Technology Dual Drivers
PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang said at today's press conference that the bank will continue to improve the policy framework for RMB cross-border use, expand digital RMB cross-border pilots, and support offshore institutions in issuing RMB bonds. Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and intensified geopolitical rivalry, RMB, with its stable exchange rate and large trade volume, is becoming a preferred choice for more countries to avoid sanctions risks and achieve currency diversification.
